Last week’s market reaction said more about our fears than about technology itself.
News around Anthropic’s new Claude plugins spooked global IT stocks. The idea that AI agents can now automate large parts of knowledge work triggered a familiar worry: are jobs next? The selling was swift, and the narrative quickly turned dark.
Closer home, the anxiety feels even more real. Companies like TCS, Infosys and Wipro, which once hired fresh graduates in the tens of thousands, have cut back sharply. Automation, efficiency drives, and AI-led delivery models are clearly reshaping how IT services operate.
At first glance, it looks like a straight line:
AI improves productivity → fewer people needed → fewer jobs.
But history tells us it’s rarely that simple
There’s a concept from economics called the Jevon’s Paradox. Back in the 1800s, when steam engines became more efficient, people expected coal usage to fall. Instead, coal consumption increased. Cheaper energy made more industries viable, more applications possible, and demand exploded.
Efficiency didn’t shrink the economy. It expanded it.
That is what is called Jevons Paradox: That improving efficiency of resource production leads to an increase in resource consumption.
We’ve seen this pattern repeat. ATMs were supposed to kill bank teller jobs. They didn’t. Banking became cheaper, branches expanded, and teller roles evolved.
Computers didn’t destroy office work; they created software, IT services, digital marketing, cybersecurity and entire industries that didn’t exist before.
It makes me wonder if AI fits this pattern far more than we realise?
Yes, certain tasks will disappear. Routine coding, basic testing, repetitive back-office work — these are already being automated. That’s the uncomfortable part. But cheaper intelligence also unlocks new demand. New products. New services. New problems worth solving.
Think about what’s already emerging:
AI infrastructure, data centres, model monitoring, AI safety, compliance, industry-specific AI tools, human-in-the-loop systems, education and reskilling platforms. None of these were mainstream job categories a decade ago.
In many departments, tasks that once died with “we don’t have the time” are now replaced with “we can do this, and a hundred more.” That shift creates pressure, but it also creates possibility.
But that also brings me to another point.
Will The Rise of New Jobs & Productivity Lead to Growth in Wages?
Here’s where I’m more cautious.
During the Industrial Revolution (Steam Engines were in fact the key drivers of the Industrial Revolution), Friedrich Engels observed something else at play.
Machines made workers far more productive, allowing factories to produce much more than before. However, wages for the average worker stayed stagnant for many years.
While labourers struggled to maintain their living standards, industrialists benefited the most from these productivity gains. This gap between rising productivity and stagnant wages is known as the Engels pause, named after Friedrich Engels.
While we agree AI is boosting productivity through automation (PwC’s Global AI Jobs Barometer shows companies with high AI adoption have seen productivity gains of up to 27%); Wages may not rise at the same pace. A Forbes analysis suggests 50–70% of wage stagnation since 1980 can be linked to automation.
So while AI may create new sectors and new roles and boost production ten folds, the harder question remains…
Who captures these gains?
Will profits be increasingly concentrated at the top, especially the one responsible for the architecture of AI? How these gains from AI get distributed will play an important role in whether this technology will create prosperity or worsen inequality.
I hope this gives you a clearer sense of where we might be headed. Not just from an investment lens, but also for career choices and life decisions more broadly.
And if I’m being honest, the consequences of AI aren’t easy to gauge. Whether it ultimately works for good or creates deeper challenges is something only time can tell.
Do let me know your thoughts!
If you enjoyed this newsletter, feel free to share it with your friends and family using the link below.
Also, if you have any topics that you would like us to cover or any other feedback, do write to us at connect@incredmoney.com
Till the next time,
Vijay
CEO – InCred Money
P.S. I share my thoughts on Investing and the Economy regularly. You can follow me here.
