At the start of 2025, I wrote about how the year was already looking uneasy. Markets were nervous, earnings expectations were soft, and geopolitics were noisy. It felt like a year where things could go wrong without much warning.
As the year played out, some of those risks didn’t stay theoretical.
Trade tensions resurfaced, including Trump’s tariffs on Indian goods, which we had flagged early on. FII flows stayed weak, valuations struggled without earnings support, and global growth slowed more than most people expected. Even at home, consumption and credit began to show signs of fatigue.
That doesn’t mean every risk turns into a crisis.
But it does remind us of something important: risks usually build quietly before they show up on price charts.
Which brings us to 2026.
The risks we’re talking about now aren’t new. They’re an extension of what we saw in 2025, just clearer and harder to ignore.
At InCred Money, we’ve put together a video breaking down the Top Risks for 2026.
In the video, we dive deep into many of these risks, explain why they matter, and more importantly, show how investors can think about positioning and protecting their portfolios through them.
But if you’re short of time, here’s a quick TL;DR using our 2026 Risk Matrix (with some additional risks), highlighting what we think matters most this year.
In addition to these are the Black Swan Events or the Wildcards. These are events like the Covid-19 pandemic or the 2004 Tsunami. Frankly, the biggest Black Swan risk this year may be from Donald Trump. Each announcement from him can rankle economies and markets.
That being said, risk lists are never perfect, and markets always find a way to surprise us. That’s why different perspectives matter. So, do let us know if you resonate with how we’re seeing the risks for 2026? Do you think we missed something important?
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Also, if you have any topics that you would like us to cover or any other feedback, do write to us at connect@incredmoney.com
Till the next time,
Vijay
CEO – InCred Money
