{"id":15119,"date":"2026-10-08T08:31:52","date_gmt":"2026-10-08T08:31:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.incredmoney.com\/blog\/?p=15119"},"modified":"2026-10-08T08:31:52","modified_gmt":"2026-10-08T08:31:52","slug":"the-risks-that-can-shut-down-companies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.incredmoney.com\/blog\/the-risks-that-can-shut-down-companies\/","title":{"rendered":"The risks that can shut down companies"},"content":{"rendered":"

On 24th September, the insurance regulator put out a draft proposing caps on the commissions insurers pay to the agents, banks and online platforms that sell their policies. Insurance-linked stocks fell between 10% and 20% that day, and some online insurance platforms fell as much as 36%.<\/p>\n

Five days later, it was the turn of hospitals. Hearing a case on medicine prices, the Supreme Court called ten-fold markups on some cancer drugs \u201ccarnage\u201d and suggested a uniform 16% margin on all medicines. Earlier in the same case, it had flagged a cancer drug supplied to retailers for \u20b92,700 that carried an MRP of \u20b927,000.<\/p>\n

Neither of these is a final rule yet. But together they\u2019re a timely reminder of something every investor in India learns sooner or later. A company can do everything right and still see its future profits rewritten by a single circular or a court order.<\/strong><\/p>\n

This week, let\u2019s look at how regulatory changes have played out over the last three decades, why the hit to a stock is usually much bigger than the rule itself, and which sectors could be next.<\/p>\n

What makes regulatory risk different<\/h2>\n

Most business risks build up slowly. A new competitor takes a few years to eat into market share, and costs creep up a quarter at a time. Management usually gets time to respond.<\/p>\n

Regulatory changes rarely come completely out of the blue either. There\u2019s usually a consultation paper, a court hearing or months of complaints before anything happens. What\u2019s hard to know is when the rule will land, how strict the final version will be, and how much of it the market has already priced in.<\/p>\n

The warning signs are usually there; it\u2019s the timing and the size of the change that catch investors out.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Regulatory changes come in two broad kinds. Some change how much a business can earn, through a price cap, a commission limit or a higher duty. Others change whether it can keep operating the way it did, through a cancelled licence or an outright ban. Caps squeeze profits, but bans and cancellations can end a business model altogether.<\/strong><\/p>\n

In August 2025, a ban on real-money online games wiped out the core business of fantasy sports, rummy and poker platforms overnight.<\/p>\n

Three decades of major rulebook changes<\/h2>\n

Here\u2019s a look at major sector-specific rule changes in the last 3 decades.<\/p>\n

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Two things stand out. First, regulation doesn\u2019t only take away. On many occasions, it changes the sector dynamics for the better too.<\/p>\n

Second, courts have been as big a source of change as regulators, and some sectors, like telecom, have been on the receiving end more than once.<\/p>\n

Why a small cut becomes a big hit<\/h2>\n

When a rule trims a company\u2019s prices or fees by 10%, it\u2019s tempting to assume profits fall by about 10% too. They usually fall by a lot more.<\/p>\n

Take a simple business that sells a product for \u20b9100. It costs \u20b960 to make and deliver, so it earns an operating profit of \u20b940. Now a regulator caps the price at \u20b990. Salaries, rent and raw materials don\u2019t fall just because the price did, so the cost stays at \u20b960.<\/p>\n

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Profit drops from \u20b940 to \u20b930. The price fell by 10%, but profit fell by 25%.<\/strong> The cut comes straight out of profit, while the costs underneath stay put. And the thinner a company\u2019s margin to begin with, the harder the same cut bites. That\u2019s why stock prices can fall much more sharply than the headline cut might suggest.<\/p>\n

Where valuation comes in<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

How far a stock falls also depends on what was already in its price. A stock with a high valuation is priced for years of smooth growth. When a rule cuts profits and also casts doubt on that growth, investors may start paying less for every rupee of profit as well, and the two hits stack up.<\/p>\n

The reverse holds too. If the market had been expecting a rule for months, much of the fall may have happened before the circular arrived. The sharpest falls tend to come when a rich valuation meets a surprise.<\/strong><\/p>\n

For investors, the lesson is straightforward. In sectors where new rules could be on the way, it makes sense to pay a lower valuation than you would for a business the regulator is unlikely to touch.<\/p>\n

Where the next circular could land<\/h2>\n

So where might the next one come from? The tables below list sectors where courts, regulators and governments are actively working on new rules, in India and in the markets Indian companies sell into. The list isn\u2019t exhaustive, and it isn\u2019t a list of sectors to avoid. Think of it as a list of sectors where the rules are still being written, and where it pays to look a little closer before investing.<\/p>\n

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A few common threads run through this list. Most of these sectors sell something people see as essential, like medicine, food or fuel. Many earn part of their money from customers who can\u2019t easily compare prices. And several have grown very fast and very visibly. When a sector\u2019s profits start making headlines for the wrong reasons, a regulator is usually not far behind.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Not every rule change hits a company equally hard. If it can pass the extra cost on to customers through higher prices, the damage to its profits may be small. The real risk is for companies that can\u2019t.<\/p>\n

The bottom line<\/h2>\n

Before investing in a regulated sector, it helps to ask a few questions. Are customers paying hidden markups or commissions? Does the business sell something essential, like medicine, food or power? Does it depend on a licence or resource the state controls, or dominate a piece of market plumbing? And how thin are its margins, and how rich its valuation?<\/p>\n

Every business in India has a silent partner in its regulator. It doesn\u2019t sit on the board, but one circular can change the profit outlook, for better or worse. Regulation rarely breaks a stock on its own; the real damage comes when a thin margin, a rich valuation and a rule the market hadn\u2019t priced in arrive together.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Share<\/a><\/p>\n

Till the next time,
\nVijay
\nCEO – InCred Money<\/p>\n

P.S. I share my thoughts on Investing and the Economy regularly. You can follow me here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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