{"id":14360,"date":"2026-07-19T08:55:45","date_gmt":"2026-07-19T08:55:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.incredmoney.com\/blog\/?p=14360"},"modified":"2026-07-21T12:28:22","modified_gmt":"2026-07-21T12:28:22","slug":"the-real-reason-your-returns-disappoint-you","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.incredmoney.com\/blog\/the-real-reason-your-returns-disappoint-you\/","title":{"rendered":"The Real Reason Your Returns Disappoint You"},"content":{"rendered":"

In the 2007 World Cup, expectations were high because India had a formidable batting lineup featuring Tendulkar, Sehwag, Ganguly, Dravid, and Yuvraj. The country had already pencilled in a semifinal berth before the tournament even began.<\/p>\n

However, following an initial loss to Bangladesh, India faced a must-win match against Sri Lanka in Port of Spain. The team was ultimately knocked out in the group stages after being bowled out for a cheap 185. The shock stemmed not just from the loss, but from the massive gap between our expectations and reality \u2014 a disconnect that transformed a standard defeat into a national crisis.<\/p>\n

Contrast this with the inaugural ICC World Twenty20 final in Johannesburg just four months later. No one expected much from India; MS Dhoni was a new captain, and T20 was a format the team had barely taken seriously. Without the crushing weight of expectation, the team played freely. When Joginder Sharma took the wicket of Misbah-ull-Haq in the final over, India emerged as unexpected champions.<\/p>\n

The resulting celebration was massive, but the joy was proportional to the surprise of the victory rather than the tournament\u2019s scale.<\/p>\n

Expectation sets an emotional floor; everything above it feels like success, while everything below feels like failure.<\/strong><\/p>\n

This philosophy is true for all aspects of life. My team recently delivered a project ahead of schedule. Something small, but it genuinely made my day. The same logic runs through investing, whether most people notice it or not.<\/p>\n

Why a Great Quarterly Result Can Still Crash a Stock<\/h2>\n

Many investors are confused when a company reports excellent quarterly results, like 25% revenue growth and 30% profit growth, yet the stock falls 8% the next morning. This isn\u2019t a glitch.<\/p>\n

Stocks move based on results relative to expectations, not just the absolute numbers. The stock price before the results already reflects what the market was expecting. When the actual number comes in, the stock price moves based on the surprise, positive or negative.<\/p>\n

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The same 30% profit growth means three completely different things depending on what the market had already priced in.<\/p>\n

Management Guidance and Credibility<\/h2>\n

Management guidance adds another layer of expectation beyond reported results. Companies that consistently meet their guidance build investor trust and often earn higher valuation multiples. Those that repeatedly overpromise and underdeliver gradually lose credibility, hurting both sentiment and valuation.<\/p>\n

Public guidance also influences management behaviour. Excessive pressure to meet short-term targets can lead to decisions like cutting R&D or delaying investments to protect margins. The best management teams set realistic expectations that allow them to balance near-term execution with long-term value creation.<\/p>\n

The Post-Covid Return Trap<\/h2>\n

The most critical expectation problem for retail investors is anchoring \u201cnormal\u201d returns to the post-Covid bull market. Between 2020 and 2024, Indian equity markets experienced a rare run, with midcap funds delivering annualised returns of 25\u201335%. Investors who started SIPs during this period often assumed those returns were the standard.<\/p>\n

They were not. Those returns stemmed from a unique combination of post-Covid valuation re-ratings, record global liquidity, and strong domestic earnings recovery. Those conditions have since normalized. Investors who anchored their expectations to that bull run now feel like their portfolios are failing when they return to long-term historical averages of 11\u201314%.<\/p>\n

Returns are not linear<\/h2>\n

Most investors fail to internalize a key truth: equity returns are not linear. They don\u2019t arrive in predictable, equal annual installments; rather, they are \u2018bunched up\u2019 over time.<\/p>\n

For instance, the Nifty 50 has a 15-year average return of approximately 11.5%. However, annual performance rarely matches this average. In 2014, the market returned 31%, followed by returns of -4% and 3% over the next two years. If you expect a steady 12\u201313% return every year, you are setting yourself up for constant disappointment \u2014 either because the market underperforms or because exceptional years create unrealistic expectations for the future.<\/p>\n

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Over time, returns tend to average out, but the journey is never a straight line. Investors who mistakenly expect consistency often make poor decisions at the worst possible moments.<\/p>\n

The Final Word<\/h2>\n

There is a famous quote:\u00a0\u201cExpectations are the root cause of all disappointment.\u201d<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0I definitely believe this is true to a large extent.<\/p>\n

One trait I\u2019ve consistently noticed among successful investors is that they have realistic expectations. They understand that markets deliver returns over long periods, not every single year. For instance, if Indian large-cap equities have historically generated around 11\u201314% annual returns, one exceptional year of 20% should not permanently raise future expectations.<\/p>\n

Having the right expectations doesn\u2019t guarantee successful investing. But having unrealistic ones almost always guarantees disappointment even when the actual outcome is perfectly reasonable.<\/p>\n

In investing, one of the most valuable skills is setting realistic expectations and having the patience to let them play out over time.<\/p>\n

\n
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If you enjoyed this newsletter, feel free to share it with your friends and family using the link below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Share<\/a><\/p>\n

Till the next time,
\nVijay
\nCEO – InCred Money<\/div>\n

P.S. I share my thoughts on Investing and the Economy regularly. You can\u00a0follow me here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In the 2007 World Cup, expectations were high because India had a formidable batting lineup featuring Tendulkar, Sehwag, Ganguly, Dravid, and Yuvraj. The country had already pencilled in a semifinal berth before the tournament even began. However, following an initial loss to Bangladesh, India faced a must-win match against Sri Lanka in Port of Spain. 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