{"id":14330,"date":"2026-06-28T04:49:50","date_gmt":"2026-06-28T04:49:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.incredmoney.com\/blog\/?p=14330"},"modified":"2026-07-21T12:27:09","modified_gmt":"2026-07-21T12:27:09","slug":"pick-the-sector-first-and-then-the-stock","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.incredmoney.com\/blog\/pick-the-sector-first-and-then-the-stock\/","title":{"rendered":"Pick the Sector First and Then the Stock"},"content":{"rendered":"

At the RCB Innovation Lab Indian Sports Summit held in May 2026, Virat Kohli said this:<\/p>\n

\u201cIf I\u2019m being brutally honest, we are not even 15% of the fitness of an Indian hockey player. If hockey players watched our training sessions, they\u2019d probably laugh because their sport demands far more physically.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

Most people might have taken it as a health and fitness remark.<\/p>\n

But think of it for a moment.<\/p>\n

Harmanpreet Singh is an Olympic medallist in hockey. By Kohli\u2019s own admission, Indian hockey players are categorically fitter. It\u2019s a more physically demanding sport and requires equal if not greater dedication.<\/p>\n

Kohli\u2019s estimated earnings including endorsements was Rs. 250-300 Crore last year. In comparison, Indian hockey star and Olympic medallist Harmanpreet Singh might be earning only a small percentage of that amount.<\/p>\n

While I know I\u2019m comparing extremes, I\u2019m sure even an average IPL player would be earning better than the best Indian Hockey players.<\/p>\n

The difference isn\u2019t necessarily the effort. Neither the talent. But it\u2019s the sport they chose to play<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Same Problem In Tennis<\/h2>\n
\n
Take the example of Learner Tien, who was the 25th highest-paid male tennis player<\/a>globally in 2025. He ended the year as the 28th best ranked tennis player of 2025. By any objective measure, he is an extraordinary athlete.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Now look at his earnings. His total prize money in 2025 was $2.3 Mn from which he would have paid his coaching staff, his travel, physiotherapy, stay and other expenses.<\/p>\n

Now compare that with Harrison Reed. He played only 7 times in the Premier League in the 2025-26 season for Fulham who were the 11th best team in the English Premier League that season. His estimated pay for the season was $4.3 Mn. And all his expenses like coaching, travel were covered.<\/p>\n

This is the level of disparity in earnings between a top Tennis player and a comparably average football player.<\/p>\n

This isn\u2019t an edge case. Walk further down the ranking list and the pattern becomes starker. Badminton, table tennis, athletics — some of the most conditioned athletes in the world compete for shallow prize pools.<\/p>\n

Imagine if Roger Federer had chosen badminton instead of tennis!<\/strong>\u00a0He might still have been ranked No. 1. His technique, work ethic, and competitive drive would have taken him there. But his fame and fortune? A fraction of what they became.<\/p>\n

The arena you choose determines your ceiling more than your ability does.<\/strong><\/p>\n

This Reflects In Your Careers Too<\/h2>\n

A fresh civil engineering graduate from a top engineering college and a fresh computer science graduate from the same campus. Same institute, same entrance exam, same five years of grind.<\/p>\n

The CS graduate, even a mediocre one, could walk into a software services firm at \u20b910-12 LPA in their first year. In contrast, even a high-performing civil engineer may only begin their career with an annual salary of \u20b95-6 LPA, facing a much more challenging corporate ladder.<\/p>\n

Similar efforts. Different returns.<\/p>\n

What Michael Porter Figured Out<\/h2>\n
\n
Michael Porter, then a professor at Harvard Business School, published his Five Forces framework<\/strong>\u00a0in 1979. The central argument was simple: the profitability of a business is shaped more by the structure of the industry it operates in than by what the business itself does. The five forces that determine industry profitability:<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
\n\"\"<\/picture>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

An industry where most of these five forces are unfavourable is structurally broken. You could be a brilliant operator and still lose. An industry where most forces work in your favour is structurally rewarding. Even an average business can do well.<\/p>\n

Great founders Can Fail In Bad Industries<\/h2>\n

Indian aviation has a massive addressable market. A billion-plus people. A rising middle class. Strong demand for air travel. Every investor pitch for an airline sounds compelling.<\/p>\n

And yet, look at the graveyard:\u00a0Jet Airways, Kingfisher, Air Deccan, Air Sahara, Paramount Airways, MDLR Airlines<\/strong>. All gone. And these were not run by incompetent people.<\/p>\n

The industry economics killed them. Jet fuel costs that move with crude oil. Airport charges with monopoly pricing. Customers who shop purely on ticket price. Labour costs that are largely fixed regardless of how full the plane is. Almost every Porter force stacked against the airline from day one.<\/p>\n

IndiGo has done exceptionally well. But IndiGo\u2019s success is exceptional precisely because it is exceptional.\u00a0The rule in Indian aviation has been a failure.<\/strong>\u00a0One survivor doesn\u2019t validate the sector.<\/p>\n

The same pattern plays out in quick commerce, physical retail, restaurants, and telecom before its consolidation. Massive markets but brutal economics. A handful of winners and a long list of companies that didn\u2019t survive.<\/p>\n

Sectors Where Even Average Players Win<\/h2>\n

Now flip it.<\/p>\n

Private sector banking in India. There are dozens of scheduled commercial banks and most of them are doing reasonably well. Yes, there is an HDFC Bank and a Kotak. But there is also a Federal Bank, a City Union Bank, a Karur Vysya Bank — smaller, less celebrated, but consistently profitable for decades.<\/p>\n

AMCs, insurance, and IT services tell a similar story. Many winners with returns distributed across players. You don\u2019t need to be the top dog to do well.\u00a0The question isn\u2019t just \u201cis this a big market.\u201d It\u2019s \u201cdoes the structure of this market allow gains to be distributed?\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

Conscious Trade-Offs<\/h2>\n

This is not an argument against choosing a structurally difficult path.<\/p>\n

Infrastructure matters deeply and we as a society need brilliant civil engineers. The world needs athletes who dedicate their lives to sports that don\u2019t pay as well. If everyone optimizes only from an economic standpoint, then we would all be poorer as a society.<\/p>\n

But this tradeoff between passion and profits has to be conscious.<\/strong><\/p>\n

For investors and business owners, there is no such trade-off. The goal is economic return. Hence, if you\u2019re looking to start a business, it\u2019s better you choose an industry which has a higher probability of success.<\/p>\n

And the same if you\u2019re an investor.<\/p>\n

Before asking how good the company is, ask how good the industry is. Do your Porter\u2019s five forces analysis.<\/p>\n

If the answers are mostly uncomfortable, that doesn\u2019t necessarily mean avoid. It may mean, go in with a higher bar, a wider margin of safety, and get your expectations right.<\/p>\n

The Final Word<\/h2>\n

The tennis player ranked within the top 50 in the world is exceptional by any measure. The effort is real and so is the sacrifice. And yet he earns less, with more anxiety, than a player who barely plays for a mid-table Premier League club.<\/p>\n

The difference isn\u2019t effort or talent but it\u2019s structure. Choose the right industry, structure, business model and your battle is half won.<\/p>\n

Maximise your probability of success first. Excellence within the right arena will follow.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n
\n<\/div>\n

If you enjoyed this newsletter, feel free to share it with your friends and family using the link below.<\/p>\n

Share<\/a><\/p>\n

Till the next time,
\nVijay
\nCEO – InCred Money<\/div>\n

P.S. I share my thoughts on Investing and the Economy regularly. You can\u00a0follow me here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

At the RCB Innovation Lab Indian Sports Summit held in May 2026, Virat Kohli said this: \u201cIf I\u2019m being brutally honest, we are not even 15% of the fitness of an Indian hockey player. 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